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University of Colorado Hurricane Forecast for 09

by Scott Martin on 04/04/2009

Usually being average or below average isn't necessarily such a good thing. In the case of hurricane reports though, tending on the average to below average side of things is good. Especially if you are in the camp of those who would like to see Natural Gas prices stay low. If you are wondering who is in that camp...if you are an energy purchaser (NG or Electricity) then you are in that camp.

According to the University of Colorado's annual spring hurricane report put out by Dr. Gray and his team:

The forecast calls for 12 named storms, which includes six hurricanes. Of those six, two are expected to develop into major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) with maximum wind speeds of 111 mph or greater.

"Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 54%, compared with the last-century average of 52%," said lead forecaster Phil Klotzbach of the Colorado State team.

The hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and runs through October.

This is actually big news. Why?

Normally the summer and fall prices will begin to move upward immediately following an above average hurricane forecast. Speculators will push the market based on the chance to profit on potential damage to NG rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. The weaker the forecast for hurricanes the less speculation.

By the way, the market is slightly down today.

All the best!

 

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